Sean Taylor, RIP

The hardest hitting safety in the NFL, the leader of the Redskins' secondary, Terrel Owens' worst nightmare -- Sean Taylor was these things plus, as teammate Pierson Prioleau said, "a dad, a brother, a friend of ours."

Funk Fund -- Week 8

For the latest in an experiment that has gone horribly awry, here are this week's picks, per week one's guidelines:

-- $20 6-point teaser on Colts (-7), Giants (-10), & Saints (-1) (payout: $52)

-- $10 straight bets on Colts, Giants, & Saints (payout: $20 each)

-- $5 3-game parlay on Colts, Giants, & Saints (payout: $36)

This week's total possible payout: $145

Current account balance: $-104

UPDATE: Karol is insistent I start providing updates after each Sunday. I said it's too embarrassing to report that my vaunted strategy is failing week in and week out.

Nonetheless, like so many weeks before, week eight missed out on a profit by a mere point. The Colts won 31-7, the Saints won 31-10, but the G-Men gave up a late-game touchdown to win by just 3, thereby losing the teaser. Once again, the only bets to hit were two straights. Ironically, I was pulling for the Dolphins to make it close, as I was personally predicting they would cover the spread.

Funk Fund -- Week 7

This weeks picks, per week one's guidelines:

-- $20 6-point teaser on Steelers (-3.5), Pats (-15.5), & Bengals (-6.5) (payout: $52)

-- $10 straight bets on Steelers, Pats, & Bengals (payout: $20 each)

-- $5 3-game parlay on Steelers, Pats, & Bengals (payout: $36)

This week's total possible payout: $145

Current account balance: $-89

Funk Fund -- Week 6

I hope none of you are playing along at home. Here are this weeks picks, per week one's guidelines:

-- $20 6-point teaser on Eagles (-4), Bengals (-1) & Cardinals (-6) (payout: $52)
-- $10 straight bets on Eagles, Bengals & Cardinals (payout: $20 each)
-- $5 3-game parlay on Eagles, Bengals & Cardinals (payout: $36)

This week's total possible payout: $145

Current account balance: $-54

UPDATE:

Out of curiosity, I looked to see how the Funk Fund would have performed in Week 1. (I hadn't started it until Week 2.) The picks would have been: Steelers (-4.5), Eagles (-3), Seahawks (-6). The Steelers and Seahawks both covered; Eagles lost by three. That means the straight bets on the Steelers and Seahawks were good, the parlay failed and the tease hit. Because the Eagles lost by 3, that makes that game a push in the tease (as it "teases" the spread six points in the your favor). When there's a tie, the payout is reduced by one game -- in this case, the "decimal multiplier" is reduced from 2.6 to 1.83. So a $20 bet would have paid $36.6. That means week 1 would have actually won $21.

Because this is an experiment in the interests of furthering science, I am going to retroactively adjust the net balance as if the Funk Fund had been in around for the entirety of this season (i.e., Week 1). This post will be retitled Week 6, and the current account balance is changing to -$54 from -$75.

Funk Fund - Week 4

Merely for the sake of science, here are this week's bets, per week one's guidelines:

-- $20 6-point teaser on Giants (-3.5), Green Bay (-3) & New Orleans (-3.5) (payout: $52)
-- $10 straight bets on Giants, Green Bay & New Orleans (payout: $20 each)
-- $5 3-game parlay on Giants, Green Bay & New Orleans (payout: $36)

This week's total possible payout: $145

Current account balance: $-40

Funk Fund -- Week 3

Looks like it's time to things with the booky to the next level. Here are this week's bets, per week one's guidelines:

-- $20 6-point teaser on Houston (-2.5), Green Bay (-1) & Dallas (-13) (payout: $52)
-- $10 straight bets on Houston, Green Bay & Dallas (payout: $19 each)
-- $5 3-game parlay on Houston, Green Bay & Dallas (payout: $36)

This week's total possible payout: $145

Current account balance: $-25

Funk Fund -- Week 2

First, a correction: Last week I immediately subtracted the bet amounts from the Fund, leaving it at $55 before the games began. I have since realized I forgot to include the price of the straight bets in the value of the possible payout (meaning, a $10 straight bet pays $20, not $10, as you're essentially doubling your money on 2-1 odds.) That means the current balance is actually $65.

This week's bets, per last week's guidelines:

-- $20 6-point teaser on Carolina (-4), Indy (-6.5) & Denver (-3.5) (payout: $52)

-- $10 straight bets on Carolina, Indy & Denver (payout: $19 each)

-- $5 3-game parlay on Carolina, Indy & Denver (payout: $36)

This week's total possible payout: $145

Current account balance: $10

UPDATE: Once again, only one bet hit, leaving the current balance at $30.

'Funk Football Fund' - Update

Terrible kick off for the Funk Fund, losing all but one bet yesterday. With two big upsets -- the Bengals' loss to their home-state rivals in Cleveland as well as the Saints falling to Tampa Bay -- things were off to a bad start from the get-go.

The account now stands at $55.

'Funk's Football Fund'

This is the beginning of a new feature here on FunkyPundit. It's an experiment in progress. Should all go well, it will lead to fame and fortune. If not, it will be quietly abandoned.

Here's the back story. Three NFL seasons ago, I discovered the glory that is online gambling. Going halvsies with my bro-piece, $50 was deposited into a now-defunct online gambling account. Our goal was to bet weekly, but also smartly and conservatively, so that our fund lasted all the way to the Super Bowl. We succeeded, ending up losing around a hundred bucks on the last game.

The next season we did the same, but this time setting a rather more ambitious goal: lasting all the way to the Super Bowl without re-upping, and this time making $1,000 in the process.

We succeeded. Believe it or not, in early February I cashed a check for approximately $1,100.

Last season, the same, though this time the goal was upped to $2,000. And believe it or not -- it worked! Actually, we failed. Badly. We added more cash to the account on more than one occasion and ended up with nothing. It was humbling.

But that hasn't shaken my confidence in the betting strategy we've developed. Last season featured tons of weird upsets -- I don't know anyone who did well.

This season I'm going to try something new. I'm going to start with $100 fake dollars and see how the "investment model" of the 'Funk Football Fund' plays out. Here's how it works: Combining the security of hedge bets with a "wisdom of the crowds," futures-like take on the week's best bets, the model is meant to be conservative yet reliable. Essentially, each week I'll take the top three consensus picks as determined by the users of Wagerline.com -- see here, for instance -- and use those as the basis for a series of bets. This week, Week 2, has 86% of Wagerline users thinking Cincinnati will beat its 7-point spread over Cleveland; 84% think New Orleans will beat its 3.5-point spread over Tampa Bay; 79% think Dallas will beat its 3-point spread over Miami.

(These are actually pretty big margins. Having obsessively monitored/used these Wagerline prognostications in seasons past, it's not often there's a 75-plus percentage consensus on anything.)

So that makes this week's picks Cincinnati, New Orleans, and Dallas. The first bet is a so-called 3-game teaser, where the line moves in your preferred direction by, in this case, 6 points. (Teasers can move the spread more than 6 points, but that lessens the payout. We'll use 6 for this imaginary fund.) Teasers also can come in multiple game varieties, whereas the outcome of the bet can be determined by 3, 4, 5 or more games. It's up to the bettor. Again, the harder one makes it, i.e., the more games, the larger the payout. For purposes of the Funk Fund, we'll keep it simple with three games. Because teasers move the line in your favor, they're probably the least risky bets in football. For that reason, the Funk Fund calls for it to be the biggest bet -- $20.

Next, straight bets. Betting straight-up on each of these three individual games provides more hedge security. Should either the Bengals, Cowboys, or Saints be unexpectedly blown out, the teaser may be lost, but two of the three straight bets are still in play. These can cover other losses. (Likewise, it's possible to lose all three straight bets, but win the tease, owing to the line moves.) Because straights are riskier than the teaser, we'll put $10 on each.

Finally, a parlay. Only through these bets can real money actually be made. Unfortunately, this is also what makes them so hard. To win a parlay, a bettor has to correctly pick two or more outcomes. (If the odds-makers in Vegas do their jobs well, the chances of picking a winner is 50/50. A three game parlay, where your bet is now dependent on the outcome of two games, thus reduces your winning probability to 25%.) Accordingly, we'll put $5 on a three-game parlay.

The payout for these bets are: $52 for a winning $20 3-game tease; $10 for each winning $10 straight; $36 for a winning $5 3-game parlay. In all, $55 will be bet for a possible total payout of
$118. On the flip side, $55 could turn into zilch.

This being the first week, things could turn sour quickly. Should every bet fail, continuing this investment model into the second week will be difficult, as there's only $45 left in the imaginary fund. If that should occur, we'll bet in the same fashion and in the same proportions, though with smaller amounts.

Incidentally, this isn't precisely the way I bet. I use Wagerline more as a resource than a guide. If, say, 75% of its users say the Eagles are going to top the Skins (my boys!), I know that's ridiculous and I'll abstain. I also sometimes see bets I consider a lock that Wagerline users seem to think are up in the air.

Current status: $45

I'll check back in Monday to see how things went.

'Great Vulgar Minds Think Alike'

Joseph Epstein on the media's obsession with the fact that this year's Super Bowl will feature two black coaches: "[W]on't America more truly have come of age as a tolerant and mature society when men and women can stand apart, on their own, without being weighed down by the heavy freight of their race, religion or ethnicity?"

UPDATE: The Assimilated Negro disagrees:

The hype around two African-American head coaches going to the Super Bowl has been impressive and appropriately reverent. I bet the first two white guys who coached in plain-jane Super Bowl I (no Caucasian research-links during Negro Bowl) are wishing their people endured three hundred years of ostensible and institutionalized oppression so they could bask in this multicultural media afterglow. Now this is what racism is supposed to be about! Good people of good character doing good things; plus they're black!